10 Predictions for 2009

Comment

Comment by Jeb Banner on January 10, 2009 at 10:58am

yes, it does seem like the Bush/Cheney team, and to some extent the administrations before them, have completely forsaken their duty to protect the many from the few. That may end up being Bush's legacy more than all the other crazy shit he did including the Iraq war.

Comment by Tim McDuff on January 9, 2009 at 12:25am

I think we’ll start to see some signs of economic recovery as we near the close of 2009, but this may be optimistic on my part. It’s a great unknown as to whether a stimulus package can have any lasting or even a short-term tangible impact. The last “peoples” stimulus package was largely considered a failure as many recipients were paying down owed debts and bills, but offered no measurable stimulus to the economy at all. The new Obama plan includes a tax break of 300 billion dollars for qualified households earning less than 200K. Unless these are made permanent it may be a completely ineffective plan and would only add to the growing deficit and further devaluation of the US dollar. This provision is mainly to appease the Republicans, but they don’t like that if will go to the middle-class and are now crying foul. We don’t have much choice as further deterioration of the economy depletes the federal tax base which will also lead to an even greater federal deficit problem. Most rational people would agree that a 21st century jobs program and massive restorative infrastructure project plan could theoretically be a great economic boost. If done right a newly trained workforce could build and operate geothermal and or solar energy generating plants. This could have a net positive and lasting long term economic benefit. This is just a simple example. Who knows how long it would take from a planning to execution stage for something on this scale. The environmental studies in some cases could go on for years without some special federal emergency exemption. In California a green energy plant could probably sail through local and state legislatures, but if you try to bring a coal plant online here – forget it. Other states would have their own protocols to follow. Since the US has ignored so many looming problems in terms of an evaporating manufacturing base and our energy systems facing obsolescence that it will be almost impossible to bring this back with any plan at least in the short term. I think it is very likely that he Obama stimulus will almost guarantee huge wastes once the cash is distributed to everyone lining up offering a their brand of job or infrastructure program. The timeline to a meaningful execution of any plan or program is so narrow, that failure on some level is inevitable. The capitalist and the current administration convinced the nation that unlimited consumption and unlimited credit was sustainable as long as we’re seeing positive GDP growth. Not the case anymore with the economy now in deep recession and even some signs of deflation. The annual debt is now approaching 40% of GDP. I trust Obama’s intentions and priorities are in line and he seems to be seeking out some top people to address the problem, but the challenge may be greater than his presidency and maybe the US’ economic strength. Notice all the stimulus packages being rolled out globally? I read yesterday that Thailand is readying an economic stimulus package of their own now. The capitalist have pillaged the country and have sold themselves the rope to hang us all.

Comment by Ian Brewer on January 7, 2009 at 9:07pm

Comparative study on class mobility

Comment by Ian Brewer on January 7, 2009 at 7:49pm

The only mobility for the middle class in the US has been downwards for the last twenty years. If you want upward mobility for the middle class, you have to go to a Social Democracy like Denmark or Sweden. Countries that invest in their infrastructure and education systems. Infrastructure spending is a time tested and proven method of stimulating the economy.

Comment by Jeb Banner on January 7, 2009 at 11:19am

gee Finn, you are such an upbeat guy!

I have faith that we will come through this even though I agree it will be tough. I think we have the right guy in place, Obama, and if anyone has the possibilty to stage a 4th quarter comeback it is him. He's smart, has overall good ideas and has put together a great team. Can he overcome the last 8 years (and more really if you want to dig into Clinton's record a little)? I don't know but what option do we have here but to hope and be part of the solution?

Comment by FinnSwingley on January 7, 2009 at 10:25am

Massive government intervention is underway. 700 billion got sucked into the banking industry, never to be seen again. I heard on NPR this morning that Obama's stimulus package could include up to a $500 tax break per worker! Well, problem solved, eh? On top of that, the big ticket in this trillion dollar stimulus is going to be "infrastructure investment". This apparently will be paid out the same way that normal federal infrastructure (read HIGHWAY) spending does. Through the same wasteful and fraudulent channels that enormous amounts of money are wasted or grafted every year.

I'm mainly whining here, but I don't see any quick turnaround or even a light at the end of the tunnel. I see a gigantic and continuing contraction that will basically destroy middle class mobility. And it pisses me off.

And yes, the state, faced with a large and suddenly restive population of unemployed or underemployed formerly middle class people, will definitely resort to watching what we eat, drink, smoke, see and hear, to the extent that it is able. They already do to a degree. It's only a matter of time and the right technology.

Comment by Jeb Banner on January 6, 2009 at 11:25pm

Finn- I think you have good points but I think we, as a people/nation, have the strange ability to re-invent ourselves. We haven't entirely abandoned our pioneer spirit. There will be massive government intervention, obviously since it is well underway, but the real question is what happens on the other side of it? Will the government start watching what we eat, drink and smoke since they have a vested interest as providers of health care, etc.

Ian- I think advertising is actually changing in its nature. It's no longer hitting your customer over the head with a brick, it's starting a conversation. The web is an excellent place for conversations, like now, and companies are learning (or will have to learn) that they need to engage their customers on the web. This can be considered advertising but it shouldn't feel like it to anyone involved- the company or the customer. The days of creating a brand and fooling the world into thinking you are someone you aren't are coming to an end, which is a good thing. The web forces transparency so I recommend that companies embrace it.

Comment by Ian Brewer on January 6, 2009 at 11:03pm

I agree that advertising is going in house, the company I work for is doing it now. When all you need is an IT person, a videographer and a graphic artist, why spend the big bucks on an ad agency?

While online is probably the only way to go for advertising, I question it's efficacy. I know that there are ads on Facebook and other sites I visit, but I don't even notice them or bother to read them. To be effective, advertising has to be more intrusive. I don't doubt that corporate interests will try to invent ways to intrude on our web browsing (having to click through ads before you can enter a site for instance). People won't tolerate it happening on their mobile devices either, that would be soon subject to strict regulation spurred by an angry public.

Comment by FinnSwingley on January 5, 2009 at 8:53pm

I don't see the turn around happening as quickly as you do. There are millions of people with few adaptable job skills / educations who are currently employed in dead / dying industries (like traditional advertising). How do you see these old dogs who can't or won't learn new tricks, and or the chronically under employed / unemployable surviving this without massive government intervention?

If the web / technology is the future, it goes without saying that governments are going to try to get a piece of the action through increased on line taxation to make up for a fragmenting tax base from more traditional industries. I was actually thinking about you the other day when I was prognosticating about a future in which small businesses exchange services rather than (mostly unavailable) cash. Government needs its taxes and will have them!

Not to be a major pessimist or anything, but what's new?

Comment by Jeb Banner on January 5, 2009 at 11:54am

Tim- great stuff there in terms of insight on the tech and green industries. I would love to see your list of prognostications for 2009!
Mike- that's weird. I haven't run into that issue yet.
John- I agree and worry that all this technology is blinding us as much as enabling us. I meant to add to my list that this year would also see a substantial technology backlash with a new Luddite movement springing up in reaction to technology overload and a growing sense of detachment from nature. I guess I might need to make that edit!

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